Friday, April 3, 2009

NCAA Sports Marketwatch

Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, where SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

The staff at speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.

Sports Marketplace – March Madness
Recapping the NCAA Tournament

This year's Sports Marketwatch contrarian sports investing picks have underperformed mightily, but that will sometimes happen with a relatively small sample size. Over the long-term, over tens of thousands of games -- and across every major US sport -- "betting against the Public" has proven to add value for handicappers. College basketball "public bettors" will be flush with cash -- so let's see how the Final Four match-ups are shaping up.

2009 March Madness Games to Watch: 4-11 = 26.7%

Sports MarketWatch – Sports Marketplace

Michigan State +4.5 over Connecticut

The Big East has done well in the NCAA Tournament and the "Public" is taking U-Conn in this game. At the time of this writing, Connecticut is collecting about 63% of the bets. It's still early, but the semi-final games are already being heavily-bet. We'll "bet against the Public" and sell U-Conn and the Big East at the crest of their wave (hopefully!) -- and buy a Michigan State team that has quietly gotten into the Final Four.

In addition, to some, the line seems suspiciously low. The "theory on soft lines" is that if it seems too good to be true, it probably is! All of these arguments point to Michigan State plus the points. If you shop around, you can grab 4.5 points.
Michigan State +4.5 (SIA)

Villanova +7.5 over North Carolina

This is an interesting game that our offshore contacts circled. Betting has been fairly heavy, with point spread bets evenly split between NC and Villanova. Including teasers and parlays, the Public favors the powerhouse NC team over Villanova. Even so, the line has decreased from its opener of NC -8 to NC -7, due to some "big, sharp money" getting down on Villanova.

Our readers know that we like to follow the "smart money" -- which usually fades the "Public." Let's go with the "sharps" and cheer for a good, close, game! There are some 7.5's available that we would grab.

Villanova +7.5 (Bodog)

Games to Watch (4-11)
Michigan State +4.5 (SIA)
Villanova +7.5 (Bodog)

It should be another exciting NCAA Tournament for the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back soon with a new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition.
Enjoy the games!

The Team at

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