Friday, March 20, 2009

March Madness Marketwatch

Back by popular demand, SportsInsights is pleased to bring our Members the March Madness Edition of our popular Sports Marketwatch publication. Note that we’ll be publishing editions of the March Madness MarketWatch through the end of the Tournament.

Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, where SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

The staff at speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.

Sports Marketplace – March Madness
Recapping Round 1 - Thursday

Sports Marketwatch got started in the right direction for the NCAA Tournament. Our selections went 3-1. Getting +14 points on Akron at Sports Interaction was huge since the game landed on 13. The guideline is to typically bet favorites early and bet underdogs late. The constant pounding of Public betting, typically on favorites, makes this a good rule of thumb to follow. A half point or full point may not seem like a lot but over the course of an entire season can it often mean the difference between winning and losing.

Please check out our article on “betting against the Public” during the Final Four Tournament. In particular, we noted that betting against the Public works particularly well during sporting events that get lots of attention – as in March Madness!

2009 March Madness Games to Watch: 3-1 = 75.0%, +2.2Units

Sports MarketWatch – Sports Marketplace

Utah State +5 over Marquette

This is one of those interesting games to handicap. Utah State comes into this game with one of the best records in the nation, at 30-4. However, they don't get much respect because they play in the Western Athletic Conference. Utah State has a #11 seed and is currently a +5 underdog to the #6 seed Marquette Golden Eagles. Marquette comes from the highly touted Big East Conference.

The line opened at Marquette -7 but early sharp money moved the line all the way to Marquette -5, even with the bets being split about 50/50. We'll join the "sharps" and expect to grab some value on a conference champ to at least put up a good fight against a team that was slightly above-average in their conference.
Utah St. +5

Utah Utes -1 over Arizona
Yes: that's not a typo: we like Utah "times two" today. In the early afternoon, we like Utah St, and in the evening, we like the Utah Utes. And the reason we like both Utah teams is that SportsInsights' proprietary sports marketplace statistics show the existence of big bettors (who are often "sharp") on both of these teams.

In this match-up, even though more bets are coming in on Arizona, the line has moved to Utah being a slight favorite. Some sportsbooks opened with Arizona being a slight favorite, so the "early sharps" definitely like Utah. One of our offshore contacts also alerted us to the early sharp action on the Utes. We'll tag along with the "big money" and give the point.
Utah Utes -1

Boston College +2.5 over USC

This game is another example where the "point spread" movement in combination with SportsInsights' "betting percentages" flag the existence of "smart money" going against the popular bet and grabbing value. With heavy betting action during the NCAA Tournament, the majority of bets are coming down on USC. CRIS opened at USC -3.5 but the early sharp money quickly moved the line down to USC -2.5. We'll bet against the majority of the bettors and join the side of the "smart money."
Boston College +2.5

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